Dear Warriors:

I started this project just before the last election because I judged that letters to the editor were one way for citizens to engage other citizens in the key issues facing voters. We are back in election mode and I will be sending out at least one letter suggestion a week. That doesn’t mean I expect you to write every time. But the role that letters can play is heightened at election time. While editors and reporters reply on polls and other information to influence their coverage, letters can do that as well.

Here’s my take on the election:

1. The greatest danger we face is a Liberal majority because that will unleash what Paul Martin actually stands for: deep integration, privatized Medicare, support for US foreign policy, water exports. It is likely that we will again have a minority Liberal government which in the circumstances is the best outcome we can hope for as there is at least a chance that the NDP can leverage more progressive policies in exchange for supporting the govt.
   
   A Liberal majority is still possible. The longer election (56 days versus 35 last time) works in favour of Martin because Harper lacks the self-discipline for a long campaign. He is contemptuous of democracy and ordinary Canadians and gives up easily. Last time he spent the last week in Alberta where he was certain if winning anyway. He was actually gaining in the polls and could conceivably have formed a minority govt himself - but he is such a crank, he basically went home. He detests popular culture and couldn’t even show up at the iconic Grey Cup game.
   
   In addition, there is no indication that Harper has a coherent election strategy.



2. Balancing off Harper’s weaknesses is the strength of the Bloc in Quebec - not at a stunning 59%. Without a strong showing in Quebec (barring a total Conservative collapse in Ontario - unlikely) it is nearly impossible for Martin to get a majority



3. There is a very good chance that NDP will get at least 25 seats in this election. Layton is a much more effective politician than he was last time, more experienced, less slick-seeming and actually has a “record” (the NDP budget of last spring) unprecedented for a leader with just 19 seats. He will likely play the “we want to make parliament work” card while Martin and Harper savage each other - in addition to choosing key policies like Medicare privatization to run on.



4. Another factor favouring a better NDP result is the Green Party, which last time played a spoiler role preventing as many as 4 NDP candidates from winning (in Sask and BC). It looks like it will not be as significant this time around - it was at just 1% in the major Environics poll released the day the govt fell. Another poll had them at 3.9%. The day the election was called last time they were at 7%. Jim Harris and his party have been all but invisible and people seem to be pledging to vote for parties that will actually be in the game in parliament.



5. The Liberals will try to convince voters that an election was unnecessary - that they were “governing” and had announced a whole raft of spending initiatives that the opposition killed by bringing the govt down. The opposition are irresponsible and Harper too ambitious. In other words, they will do the same as last time and historically: run from the left, hoping to win and govern from the right. They will play the fear card again against Harper hoping to scoop NDP voters. While that tactic may still work to some degree it will not work as well because 1) People have some experience of the benefits of a minority govt and 2) Harper has decided to run on policies virtually identical to those of the Liberals to neutralize the scare weapon (of course he is lying but he presents a smaller, moving target).



6. The wild card in this election is what Harper will do and what his campaign will look like. He tends to surround himself with like-minded ideologues and has rejected help from campaign managers from the old PC party. Ideologues are notoriously impractical. If something doesn’t work - they do it more vigorously. If Harper tries to ride out the whole campaign attacking Martin on the sponsorship scandal he will be committing political suicide. He is quite capable of this.
   
   On the policy side he will mimic the Liberals. But most voters beyond his core support (28-30%) will not trust him. It is just too big a leap from someone who has expressed contempt for his own country to someone who embraces Medicare. He has managed through coaching to appear more human - but he is still the grim reaper of Canadian politics and no amount of coaching cab change a troglodyte into a white prince. And, of course, he still has a lot of the extreme loonies from Reform/Alliance in his caucus - all eager to shoot themselves and their party in the foot. Rumour has it that the party is spending a lot on duct tape this time around.

What to do...

If this analysis is correct then our letter writing should focus on several themes implemented based on the opportunities presented by the campaign as it unfolds.

1. A relentless attack on Martin and the Liberals for their hypocrisy and death-bed repentance re: social spending. Remind people of the Red Book promises of 1993 - co-written by Martin. It still hold the record for the most broken promises ever in an election.
   
   Reminding people of Martin’s REAL record should be a key focus.



2. It is important to remember why the NDP pulled the plug on this corrupt crowd: Martin refused to meet the NDP’s demand for strong measures against further Medicare privatization. THIS IS ENORMOUSLY IMPORTANT. By so refusing the Liberals were signalling Bay Street, the banks and US health corporations that they could be trusted to open the door to for-profit medicine.
   
   This could fairly be called the election that determined the future of health care. A major focus of our letters should be on this issue.



3. From the perspective of progressive government it is simply a fact that the more seats the NDP gets, the more leverage they will have to force the Liberals to 1) commit to increased social spending, the arts, First nations, etc and 2) back off their deep integration plans.
   
   That doesn’t necessarily mean we should be writing openly partisan letters (though we can do that) but it does mean that we should be keeping both the Liberals and Conservatives away from majority territory and encouraging people to keep focussed on the substantive issues. Perhaps the most effective tactic - because it is perceived to less overtly partisan - is to promote the notion of another minority government.



4. The Greens may increases their support in the polls but I doubt it. If they do we need to remind people who they are: eco-capitalists, pro-business, in favour of corporate “self-regulation,” lower corporate taxes and voluntarism when it comes to social problems like poverty, and run by an authoritarian leader whose election c’ttee is made up of 12 men (when half his party members or more are women).



5. We should not let Harper off the hook. He has more skeletons in his past than even Barbara Amiel’s walk in closets can handle. Just in case people forget...we need to remind them that this is a man who actually has contempt for his own country and everything it has stood for in the past fifty years.